Guide to Honduras Homicide Data 2024

Homicides are down sharply.

Homicides in Honduras fell markedly in 2024 for the second year running, though the country remains the most homicidal in Central America.

The homicide rate now sits at 25.3 homicides per 100,000 people per year, a fall of 26.5% from 2023, according to investigative outfit InSight Crime. Costa Rica recorded the second-highest homicide rate in the region at 16.6. 

Departmental Homicide Rates

Within Honduras, the Bay Islands are now the country’s most homicidal department, with a homicide rate of 43.7. Most of the murders, 30 in total, took place on Roatan, the largest of the islands and Honduras’ flagship tourist destination. The islands have a small population, making the homicide rate prone to fluctuations, though homicide rates have been steadily on the rise there since 2020, posing a dark threat to the country’s nascent tourism industry.  

In other regions, however, homicide rates mostly fell. Olancho and Colón, departments that regularly make the news for grinding land conflicts and grizzly episodes of violence, both recorded numerous homicides but were safer in 2024 than 2023. Valle was the least homicidal department with a homicide rate of 10.1. 

The State of Emergency

The Honduran government regularly credits the falling homicide rate to the ongoing state of emergency. Since 2022, constitutional rights have been partially suspended, giving the security forces extra powers, including the ability to search homes without a warrant. Over 92% of the Honduran population lives in areas under emergency measures, corresponding to 226 of the country’s 298 municipalities. 

However, beyond occasional triumphant tweets, the government has never been able to successfully explain exactly how the suspension of constitutional rights has led to the security gains. What’s more, falling homicide rates have been recorded in both municipalities with the emergency measures and those without, undermining the argument that the fall in homicides is predicated on citizens continuing to live without their full constitutional rights. 

The data show that the homicide rate averaged 26.3 in the last six months of 2024 in the 226 municipalities under the current state of emergency, down 33% from the last six months of 2022. But municipalities not currently targeted by the government's emergency measures followed a similar trend, with homicides falling there by 34%. 

Gender

In 2024, 91% of the victims of homicide in Honduras were male (2,284) and 9% were female (226). The gender of the victim was unidentified on four occasions. The average age of homicide victims were mid 30s for both male and female homicide victims. 

This means Honduras’ male homicide rate was 47.5 in 2024, down 21% from 2023. The female homicide rate was 4.4, down 46% from 2023. The female homicide rate fluctuates more widely because female victims are fewer, but both rates are at the lowest levels recorded since the start of SEPOL’s data in 2013. 

Municipal Homicide Rates

On the municipal level, both the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa and second city San Pedro Sula saw marked security gains with homicide rates of 17.4 and 18.1 respectively in 2024. This makes them both safer than average Honduran municipalities and at least twice as safe as cities like Detroit and New Orleans in the United States. Both Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula fell from the list of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world this year.

Conversely, pockets of extreme violence continue to blight rural municipalities. The small town of San Miguelito in Intibuca clocked a homicide rate of 111.2 in 2024, which, while extreme, is the lowest the homicide rate has been there in the last six years. A cluster of high-homicide municipalities also opened in municipalities surrounding Macuelizo, on the border of the departments of Copán and Santa Barbara.

Data Sets and Citations

This analysis is based on public data, solicited and organized by me, Sam Woolston. Data for regional homicides is from InSight Crime. The Honduras data is free to use for your own analysis. When publishing articles using this data, please include a link back to my substack (to be posted on Feb 26). If you find something interesting in the data, let me know! 

Feel free to republish my graphs and maps, with a citation to me, Sam Woolston, and a link to the substack. You can also support my work through a one-off donation through the Buy me a coffee platform, for those who find the numbers particularly useful. 

Sources and Notes

Population data: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). The population data is based off the last census in Honduras, conducted in 2013. INE has forecasted the population for each municipality in the country until 2030. Honduras has more females female citizens than male, which was accounted for in the gendered homicide statistics. INE estimates give gendered population data on the department level. 

Homicide data: SEPOL. These are official police records, as accessed on Monday, 24 February. The Instituto Universitario en Democracia, Paz y Seguridad (IUDPAS) maintains a separate register that has recorded a slightly higher homicide figure in the past, though the differences are usually small.

Municipalities under emergency measures: This is published in La Gaceta, the official record of government activity. The state of emergency measures started in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula and were gradually rolled out to 226 of Honduras’ 298 municipalities.  

Discrepancies: There are sometimes small differences in the homicide rates published by Honduran institutions and media outlets. Small variances of 0.1 or 0.2 are usually the result of differing estimations of Honduras population data. Honduran police institutions will also occasionally revise homicide numbers. 

Errors: If you spot an error or have any questions about the data, contact me anytime at swoolstonwriter@gmail.com.