Key Takeaways from Honduras’ 2023 Homicide Data

Homicide rates in Honduras fell in 2023 though the country continues to grapple with some of the highest levels of insecurity in Latin America. 

The national rate fell 13% between 2022 and 2023 from 35.6 homicides per 100,000 people to 30.8. But it also masked considerable diversity between the regions. Colón remained Honduras’ most homicidal department with a rate of 57.0 homicides per 100,000. Meanwhile, Gracias a Dios clocked the lowest homicide rate of 6.3 in 2023 according to official statistics. 

While the fall in national rates is good news, the homicide numbers remain alarmingly high, averaging 8.3 per day. Honduras was the second most homicidal country in the Americas, according to InSight Crime. 

The high rates raise serious questions as to whether measures taken to curb insecurity in Honduras have been effective. At the end of 2022, Honduran policymakers implemented a rolling State of Emergency, expanded police powers, and suspended a number of constitutional rights. 

The strategy resembled actions taken by El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whose extreme mano dura (iron fist) approach has been credited with squashing the country’s homicide rate to just 2.4 per 100,000 in 2023. 

But Bukele’s strategy has come at a cost, eroding civil liberties and triggering profound human rights concerns. And despite implementing some of the same measures from Bukele’s playbook, Honduras’ homicide remains 12.7 times higher than the rate in El Salvador. 

Going deeper, the data presents a nuanced picture of homicide in Honduras. Honduras’ most violent areas tend to be small villages. Meanwhile, many big cities in Honduras have lower homicide rates than cities in the United States. While there has been an increase in female victims of homicide, the main group of people affected by this particular type of violence remains young men. 

Here are the key takeaways from the official 2023 data. 

Pockets of Extreme Rural Violence

Sources: Honduras homicide data: Ministry of Security (SSSS-2148-2024). Population data: own calculations based on the 2003 and 2013 Honduran census. 

Homicide rates fell in all departments with the exception of Lempira, where the rate ticked upwards from 39.4 in 2022 to 43.0 in 2023. The violence was driven by sharp spikes in some of Lempira’s smallest towns: The number of murders in La Iguala went from 14 to 20, San Marcos de Caiquín from 3 to 8, and San Juan Guarita from 0 to 6. 

A notable pocket of violence has emerged in four connected municipalities on the border of Lempira and Intibuca. San Marcos de Caiquín (Rate: 115.6), Santa Cruz (R: 93.6), San Juan (R: 112.4) San Miguelito (R: 122.5) have small populations, but register homicide rates considerably higher than the regional average. 

Meanwhile, in Olancho, El Rosario also recorded standout homicide rates (R: 114.1). While that equated to five homicides, the town’s population is also very small. El Rosario has long been rocked by insecurity.

In a visit to the region last year with ContraCorriente, I documented how police sources pointed to conflicts between rural criminal groups as a potential source of the ongoing homicide spree, and how local officials seemed unprepared to tackle the crisis. 

North (Mostly) More Violent than South

Sources: Homicide data: Ministry of Security (SSSS-2148-2024). Population data: own calculations based on the 2003 and 2013 Honduran census. 

At the departmental level, Honduras tends to be more violent in the north than in the south. Colón has been the country’s most violent region since 2021. The Bajo Aguán Valley is located in the department and is an area where land conflicts have recently intensified leading to a spate of violence largely against peasant cooperative groups. 

Tocoa (R: 79.5) and Saba (R: 73.1) are two cities in Colón with the most homicides relative to their size. A flareup in Santa Rosa de Aguán led to 7 people being killed in 2023, however, this does not appear to be part of a long-run trend. 

The north has also historically been a key land route for drug trafficking. While local sources indicated that drug flights have fallen, cocaine continues to skirt Honduras’ northern coast where some continue moving towards the Western border overland.

The southern departments of Honduras, in contrast, tend to have lower rates of homicide. Valle and Choluteca stand out for being particularly peaceful departments with several municipalities registering 0 homicides. On a national level, 44 of Honduras’ 298 municipalities were homicide free in 2023. 

Gracias a Dios, a remote department in Honduras North East, registered the lowest departmental homicide rate with official statistics pointing to just seven murders in 2023. However, the results should be taken with some caution. In a visit to Brus Laguna in November, several sources raised concerns that homicides in the department were not being recorded accurately at the national level. 

Lower Homicide Rates in Big Cities

Sources: Honduras homicide data: Ministry of Security (SSSS-2148-2024). Population data: own calculations based on the 2003 and 2013 Honduran census. U.S. Homicide Data: RIT Centre for Public Safety Initiatives. Note on the data: Honduras’ figures are from 2023, however the most recent reliable figures for the U.S. at the time of writing came from 2022. 

The majority of large Honduran cities registered homicide rates less than the national average, again underscoring that rural areas continue to be the main drivers of homicides in the country. Of Honduras’ six largest cities, only Choloma (R: 37.5) had a homicide rate higher than the national average. 

Honduras’ cities compare favorably to several cities in the US, though the national homicide rate remains about 4.7 times higher than the US as a whole, For example, both St Louis and New Orleans had homicide rates more than 2.5 times higher than Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula. 

A wander around Tegucigalpa seems to now carry the same level of risk as a walk around Chicago, at least in terms of the homicide numbers.  

Uptick in Female Victims 

Sources  Honduras homicide data: Ministry of Security (SSSS-2148-2024). Population data: own calculations based on the 2003 and 2013 Honduran census. 

The female homicide rate in Honduras rose 25% from 6.0 to 7.5 female victims of homicides per 100,000 women between 2022 and 2023. Most of this increase was driven by a sharp rise in the number of female victims of homicide in Francisco Morazan which increased from 45 to 105 victims. 

That was enough to make Francisco Morazan Honduras’ most femicidal state with 3 in 10 victims of homicide in the department now female. 

Meanwhile, male homicide rates fell from 66.6 male victims per 100,000 men in 2022 to 55.3 in 2023 on the national level. Overall males remain far more likely to be victims of homicide than females with about 87% of homicide victims male. 

The average age of victims was similar between the two sexes. The average male victim was 34 and the average female victim was 36. 

Appendix

Variations in statistics: Homicide rate calculations are estimates based on homicide and population data. Because there are varying estimates of Honduras’ current population, homicide rate estimates vary slightly +/- 1%.

For example, the calculation in this article is that the 2023 homicide rate is 30.8 homicides per 100,000 whereas InSight Crime reports 31.1. The differences are driven by the different population estimates being used. 

This article uses data from the 2003 and 2013 census, and models population change in the municipal level in 2023 based on extrapolated changes between 2003 and 2013. 

Official data limitations: This article is based on homicide data from the Ministry of Security. Like all crime data, some homicides may not have been accurately reported and there are limitations to the official data. This is particularly a concern in remote regions, for example, Gracias a Dios. 

Further, the University Institute of Democracy, Peace and Security (IUDPAS) creates its own count of homicides each year using a wider definition of homicide which results consistently in slightly higher homicide counts.

Our decision to use data from the Ministry of Security was motivated by the desire to use official government data where possible, and also to collect data in a manner that ensured consistency and timeliness. 

Questions and Corrections: If you spot an error, please get in touch. If you have questions or would like access to the full data set send me an email at swoolstonwriter@gmail.com.